Key Takeaways
- Expectations of a decline of approximately 33% from current levels.
- The road is still paved towards the $145,000 level.
- The most influential options investors in the markets now.
After losing nearly $800 billion in market value, cryptocurrencies managed to register some limited gains over the weekend, alongside positive trading performance on Monday.
However, Tuesday’s trading session revealed the prevalence of anxiety and uncertainty regarding trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, leading the crypto market to experience a collective decline.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, fell close to the levels it reached on October 10, when it fell to its lowest levels since last June, near the psychological support barrier of $100,000.
Bleak vision
Jon Glover, chief investment officer at Elliott Wave, expects Bitcoin to drop to $70,000 or lower as the bull market that began in early 2023 comes to an end.
Forecasts indicate a potential 33% decline from its current levels, which are hovering near $108,000.
Glover’s analysis comes in the wake of Bitcoin’s recent decline from $126,000 to $104,000, which he interprets as confirmation of the completion of the five-wave bullish structure, and he expects the upcoming bear market to continue until at least late 2026.
The ascent is over
Glover expressed his firm belief that the bullish movement is over, and prices are likely to range between $70,000 and $80,000, with the potential for further declines.
While a retest of record levels around $124,000 or slightly higher is not completely ruled out, the overall trend has reversed to the downside.
Elliott Waves
Elliott Wave Theory, introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, assumes that the collective investor psychology moves in predictable cycles. These cycles form five-wave structures toward the main trend, consisting of three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Bitcoin’s bullish five-wave pattern began in late 2022 when prices stabilized below $20,000. The fifth wave peaked above $126,000 earlier this month, below Glover’s initial year-end forecast of $140,000 to $150,000, which he made in early August.
Momentum stalled at $125,000 this month, prompting warnings that a repeated failure to maintain this level would weaken the upside potential.
While the subsequent drop to $105,000 last week confirmed an early end to the bull run, according to Glover’s analysis.
Bull run end
After the coin dropped below $108,000, Glover declared the bull run officially over, and his assessment suggests two possible trajectories:
- One leads to $145,000, and the other indicates that the market has already reached its highest levels for this cycle.
- This bearish outlook is consistent with Bitcoin’s historical price pattern, which has peaked approximately 18 months after each halving before entering bear markets.
The last halving occurred in April 2024, which puts the current timing within that typical period, according to analysis by Elliott Wave, the chief investment officer.
Until next year
Data from Amberdata supports the negative outlook, showing that Bitcoin put options listed on Deript are trading at a higher premium than call options until their September 2026 expiration.
Put options provide downside protection, and their high price indicates that traders are preparing for extended downside risks into next year.
The sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is **still** not widely appreciated, but it has been THE source of resistance.
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) October 19, 2025
Not manipulation, not paper Bitcoin, not suppression.
Just good old fashioned sellers.
Also, it won't become irrelevant. https://t.co/4QnfCn2f7w pic.twitter.com/YiK7gtjkzj
Selling pressure
Bitcoin is under sustained pressure as long-term investors liquidate their positions at record levels, with daily losses reaching $1.7 billion in the past 24 hours.
The market’s delayed recovery stems from traditional selling, not manipulation or suppression. The significant selling pressure from existing Bitcoin holders remains underappreciated and represents the primary source of current resistance.
The chart data shows that the average age of consumed coins has increased over the course of the cycle, confirming that long-term Bitcoin holders are the primary sellers.
Today’s losses marked the third-highest level of this cycle, while the renewed supply of old coins reached its second-highest level at $2.9 billion per day.
After some thinking this weekend, I believe the last year of relative weakness for BTC has mostly been transfer of supply from OGs to tradfi, can see this in on chain data. This dynamic will be mostly irrelevant in coming years, just as everyone is focused on BTC’s rel weakness.
— Will (@WClementeIII) October 19, 2025
Centers flow
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz confirmed during a recent interview with RealVision CEO Raoul Pal that many longtime Bitcoin holders, having weathered long market cycles, have decided to convert their holdings into tangible assets, purchasing yachts and stakes in sports teams.
Novogratz said participants are reducing their positions after realizing significant gains, and emphasized that his company has only observed increased supply from established shareholders and mining companies entering the market.
Important levels
Continued stability near $107,000 could enable Bitcoin to climb back to $120,000 over time, and maintaining support is crucial.
The most expensive crypto asset faces additional resistance. The next significant price action depends on whether long-term investors complete the profit-taking cycle and allow new demand to build momentum.
I think it needs explaining that although I see an elongated cycle it doesn't mean my analysis is right. The breadth and depth of macro/crypto analytics framework I've added since 2021 is massive and I'm happy with the probabilities currently but things can change…
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) October 7, 2025
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